November 2013
“Don’t walk behind me; I may not lead. Don’t walk in front of me; I may not follow. Just walk beside me and be my friend.” – Albert Camus
November ’13 Pic(s)/Quote of the Month
November 30th, 2013China’s Ghost Cities
November 5th, 2013A few people have asked me since I’ve been back whether I saw any of China’s “ghost cities” while I was there. I have usually responded that there are indeed droves of empty condos but the existence of multitudes of “ghost cities” sounds to me like an exaggeration.
I came across this 60 Minutes feature (http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50142079n) on this issue, and as it turns out the city (Zhengzhou) Lesley Stahl goes to is the one I lived in during my 1st year in China. She pronounces it incorrectly – it sounds more like “(hard j) Jung Joe”, but regardless I recognize some of the sights.
Anyway, a few quick thoughts:
– When she says “there’s miles…and miles…and miles of empty apartments”, well, many of those buildings are not completely empty. It is certainly true that many are mostly empty – often to an absurd extent – but she makes it seem like they are almost just sitting there not even open for business. Not the case. In most cases these are just recently constructed and a low percentage of the condos have actually been bought, though I’m not saying that’s about to change. But yes admittedly one of those long stretches of mostly empty apartments was very near where I lived, and we (other foreign teachers and I) would joke about the uninhabited “city within the city.”
– I thought it was very misleading around the 8:00 mark to use Shanghai as the base for how many more times purchasing an apartment costs than the average resident’s annual salary. Without even checking the math on this comparison – and certainly buying a condo is way too expensive for a huge segment of the population – this is like discussing how expensive housing is for average Americans and using housing in Manhattan as the comparison. In fact it’s probably even more skewed. Shanghai is universally regarded across China as an amazing city but literally impossible to buy housing in unless you are rich. Suzhou (where I lived my 2nd year in China) is just a 30-minute train ride from Shanghai and is itself one the 50 most populated cities in the world, however housing there is much less expensive. Travel further inland and the prices continue to drop in most locales. Once again though, this is not to say that buying a condo is realistic for all the millions of construction workers, maintenance men, etc.
– I found the empty shopping mall bit amusing (and most likely true in regards to the fake signage). However, malls are everywhere in Chinese cities, and while many of them are seemingly too ornate compared to what I would guess their actual revenue to be, there are customers in most of them. Certainly there are examples of bankrupt malls, but some of the most popular malls are so flooded with customers that it is easy to see why enterprising businessmen would build yet another mall in the hopes that it becomes a new hotspot.
I’ll close with this thought: Construction is omnipresent in Chinese cities. You hear shocking statistics of how many projects are currently underway in various cities and funny trivia such as “there are more cranes in China than in any other country in the world.”
Right now, I would not buy a Chinese condo. (This line of thinking is not without its drawbacks, however, as virtually any Chinese girl’s family views ownership (or plans of ownership) of a condo as priority #1.) I think the prices are bound to drop (in these over-developed areas at least) as the reality continues to set in that the units are not going to be bought any time soon at the advertised prices.
However, consider for a minute what might happen if the government were to lift the one-child policy completely (currently one must pay a hefty fine when in violation of this decree): sure it would take a while for the effects to be realized, but there would be a hell of a lot of new Chinese babies on the way who would need a place to live 25 years down the road. I’d say it is at least plausible that the government is simply preparing for this eventual societal expansion.
I’m not sure what the point of this e-mail is, but if you’ve read this far then I guess it’s too late.
April ’13 Pic(s)/Quote of the Month
April 30th, 2013April 2013
“Ads are the cave art of the twentieth century.” – Marshall McLuhan
The most beautiful woman in China
First Pitch Fantasy Baseball Ranks
April 1st, 2013Ranked the Top 200 a few days ago in preparation for a draft that ignores SB (H/R/HR/RBI/AVG/OBP & W/HLD/SV/K/ERA/WHIP).
Haven’t updated it since the draft to reflect the Motte injury, Jose Fernandez’ promotion, etc., but here it is as a matter of record.
Fantasy Baseball Top 200: 24-Mar.
• 1. Miguel Cabrera
• 2. Robinson Canó
• 3. Joey Votto
• 4. Prince Fielder
• 5. Albert Pujols
• 6. Ryan Braun
• 7. Carlos González
• 8. Andrew McCutchen
• 9. Bryce Harper
• 10. Matt Kemp
• 11. Mike Trout
• 12. Stephen Strasburg
• 13. Clayton Kershaw
• 14. Troy Tulowitzki
• 15. Justin Verlander
• 16. Adrián Béltre
• 17. José Bautista
• 18. Buster Posey
• 19. Ian Kinsler
• 20. Justin Upton
• 21. Josh Hamilton
• 22. Giancarlo Stanton
• 23. David Price
• 24. David Wright
• 25. Edwin Encarnación
• 26. Dustin Pedroia
• 27. Evan Longoria
• 28. Ryan Zimmerman
• 29. Jason Heyward
• 30. Yoenis Céspedes
• 31. Adam Jones
• 32. Cliff Lee
• 33. Félix Hernández
• 34. Matt Cain
• 35. Cole Hamels
• 36. Billy Butler
• 37. Allen Craig
• 38. Adrián González
• 39. Yu Darvish
• 40. Jay Bruce
• 41. B.J. Upton
• 42. Gio González
• 43. R.A. Dickey
• 44. Matt Holliday
• 45. Adam Wainwright
• 46. Zack Greinke
• 47. Paul Goldschmidt
• 48. Jered Weaver
• 49. Craig Kimbrel
• 50. CC Sabathia
• 51. Kris Medlen
• 52. José Reyes
• 53. Ian Desmond
• 54. Jason Kipnis
• 55. Joe Mauer
• 56. Anthony Rizzo
• 57. Shin-Soo Choo
• 58. Aroldis Chapman
• 59. Ben Zobrist
• 60. Starlin Castro
• 61. Brandon Phillips
• 62. Chris Sale
• 63. Jacoby Ellsbury
• 64. Aaron Hill
• 65. Aramis Ramírez
• 66. Freddie Freeman
• 67. Pablo Sandoval
• 68. Álex Ríos
• 69. Carlos Santana
• 70. Madison Bumgarner
• 71. Johnny Cueto
• 72. Asdrubal Cabrera
• 73. Mat Latos
• 74. Matt Moore
• 75. Max Scherzer
• 76. Hanley Ramírez
• 77. Alex Gordon
• 78. Jordan Zimmermann
• 79. Yovani Gallardo
• 80. Jimmy Rollins
• 81. Ryan Howard
• 82. Paul Konerko
• 83. Austin Jackson
• 84. Jonathan Papelbon
• 85. Eric Hosmer
• 86. James Shields
• 87. Brandon Morrow
• 88. Ike Davis
• 89. Matt Wieters
• 90. Melky Cabrera
• 91. David Freese
• 92. Brett Lawrie
• 93. Rickie Weeks
• 94. Carlos Beltrán
• 95. Elvis Andrus
• 96. Desmond Jennings
• 97. Nelson Cruz
• 98. Jake Peavy
• 99. Martín Prado
• 100. Jon Lester
• 101. Josh Johnson
• 102. Curtis Granderson
• 103. Mark Trumbo
• 104. Tim Lincecum
• 105. Yadier Molina
• 106. Rafael Soriano
• 107. Jason Motte
• 108. Hunter Pence
• 109. Chris Davis
• 110. Víctor Martínez
• 111. Miguel Montero
• 112. Ian Kennedy
• 113. Salvador Pérez
• 114. Chase Utley
• 115. Dan Haren
• 116. Matt Harvey
• 117. Roy Halladay
• 118. Derek Jeter
• 119. Sergio Romo
• 120. Chase Headley
• 121. Joe Nathan
• 122. Josh Willingham
• 123. Wilin Rosario
• 124. Mike Moustakas
• 125. Mike Napoli
• 126. Will Middlebrooks
• 127. Mariano Rivera
• 128. Andre Ethier
• 129. Nick Markakis
• 130. Nick Swisher
• 131. Adam LaRoche
• 132. Carlos Gómez
• 133. Fernando Rodney
• 134. Greg Holland
• 135. Huston Street
• 136. Tom Wilhelmsen
• 137. Jeff Samardzija
• 138. Brian McCann
• 139. Jesús Montero
• 140. Dan Uggla
• 141. Brett Anderson
• 142. Homer Bailey
• 143. J.J. Putz
• 144. Justin Morneau
• 145. Brandon Belt
• 146. Howie Kendrick
• 147. Jim Johnson
• 148. Danny Espinosa
• 149. J.J. Hardy
• 150. Michael Morse
• 151. Joel Hanrahan
• 152. Lorenzo Cain
• 153. Julio Teherán
• 154. Jeremy Hellickson
• 155. Grant Balfour
• 156. David Murphy
• 157. Todd Frazier
• 158. Pedro Alvarez
• 159. Alexi Ogando
• 160. Josh Beckett
• 161. Alfonso Soriano
• 162. Wil Myers
• 163. Bruce Rondon
• 164. Shelby Miller
• 165. David Robertson
• 166. Anibal Sánchez
• 167. Hiroki Kuroda
• 168. Andrew Cashner
• 169. Brandon Beachy
• 170. David Hernández
• 171. Kyle Seager
• 172. Michael Young
• 173. Michael Bourn
• 174. Shane Victorino
• 175. Ichiro Suzuki
• 176. Tyler Colvin
• 177. Jurickson Profar
• 178. James McDonald
• 179. Jonathon Niese
• 180. Jarrod Parker
• 181. Domonic Brown
• 182. Kyle Lohse
• 183. Manny Machado
• 184. Corey Hart
• 185. José Altuve
• 186. Neil Walker
• 187. Carlos Quentin
• 188. Carl Crawford
• 189. Doug Fister
• 190. Dexter Fowler
• 191. Alcides Escobar
• 192. Andrelton Simmons
• 193. Josh Rutledge
• 194. A.J. Pierzynski
• 195. Dustin Ackley
• 196. Trevor Cahill
• 197. Tim Hudson
• 198. Jed Lowrie
• 199. Alex Cobb
• 200. Ryan Dempster
• 201. J.P. Arencibia
• 202. Nolan Arenado
(Note: Updated with the team we are putting on the field for opening day):
C: Salvador Perez
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Robinson Cano
3B: Ryan Zimmerman
SS: Troy Tulowitzki
LF: Bryce Harper
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Alex Rios
UTIL: Shin Soo-Choo
Bench: Jesus Montero, Brandon Belt
DL: Hanley Ramirez
SP: Yu Darvish; Zack Greinke; Matt Moore; Jake Peavy; Jon Lester; Dan Haren; Alexi Ogando; Jose Fernandez
RP: Tom Wilhelmsen; Addison Reed; Bobby Parnell; Steve Cishek
DL: Brandon Beachy
June ’12 Pic(s)/Quote of the Month
June 30th, 2012June 2012
“Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned.” – Buddha
